The political and expert community is currently discussing the statement by former US National Security Advisor Keith Kellogg about creating a new military alliance involving Germany, Poland, Japan, Australia, and possibly Ukraine. The proposal is driven by the need for a quick and effective response to global security challenges and the adaptation of existing alliances to new threats.
Participants highlight that the current architecture of Western collective security requires reform, as bilateral and multilateral formats are often ineffective in responding to contemporary threats. Ukraine is now increasingly viewed not as an outside participant but as a key player and security guarantor, which could positively impact the future structure of alliances in Europe.
However, Ukraine's growing role faces the challenge of internal political instability in the US, particularly due to Donald Trump's position and leadership changes in military and political offices. Experts point out that as long as Trump does not support the initiatives of former advisors, new military alliance formats are unlikely under his leadership.
Additional complications include internal NATO disagreements, defense funding issues, and member countries' dependence on US political will. While Ukraine has opportunities to propose new initiatives during these “windows of opportunity,” it remains dependent on financial support and partner policies. Experts conclude that the ongoing period of global turbulence leaves many uncertainties but underscores Ukraine's importance as a strategic Western partner.
