US President Donald Trump has issued an ultimatum to Iran's leadership: either come to an agreement with the US to end the ongoing conflict or open the Strait of Hormuz to prevent a global energy crisis. The current situation around the strait could push the world into an even greater energy shock than in the 1970s.
Iran has responded to US pressure with diplomatic statements but refuses to accept Washington's terms. Iran's proposals at negotiations essentially amount to demanding a capitulation from the US and Israel, which is unacceptable for the West. Experts note that the negotiation process may be a strategy to buy time for Iran to continue attacks on Gulf infrastructure and Israel.
In the US, various options are being considered: strikes on Iran's energy sector, a large-scale ground operation to unblock the strait, or extending the ultimatum on the pretext of continued talks. Each scenario is fraught with major risks, from escalating global energy prices to military casualties and changed positions for world leaders.
In response, Iran could blockade the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait via Houthi forces in Yemen, leading to an even more severe energy crisis. Other actors, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel, and indirect international players, are heavily engaged in the conflict zone.
Amid these developments, Ukraine is strengthening its importance as a regional military player, improving cooperation with Gulf states. Turkey, meanwhile, maintains ties with both the West and Russia, enhancing its significance as a mediator.
The escalation in the Persian Gulf, the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict, and possible global energy shocks are shaping a new reality. Ukraine continues to seek security and economic stability through partnerships with key allies.
